The Cardiovascular Risk Project
What we want to find out
Are autistic people at an increased risk of serious heart and circulatory conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, Transient Ischaemic Attacks (TIAs), and angina?
We are analysing data on a range of known cardiovascular risk factors to understand how they interact with autism. The mechanism behind any observed increased risk will then be explored through biological, genetic, and social lenses.
Why we’re doing this research
Research shows that autistic people appear to have an increased risk of chronic cardiovascular conditions, shorter life expectancy, and poorer healthcare experiences. However, little research has been done into autism and the risk of major ischaemic events (e.g. heart attacks, strokes). Given the life-altering impact of these events, and the potential of preventative medicine to reduce them, further research into the scale of risk and how it could be mitigated is important.
Method
We will analyse electronic health records provided by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in a matched case control study, comparing autistic and non-autistic people with similar characteristics to examine. An autism diagnosis, the matching criteria, and other cardiovascular risk factors will be included as factors. Other international populations will then be identified and analysed using the same method to replicate the findings of the first study.
A follow-up study on these international populations will use a machine learning algorithm to calculate individual risk and attempt to predict the 10-year risk of a major ischaemic event more accurately than traditional methods.
The UK Biobank will also be used to analyse how high autistic traits (as measured by the AQ-10) impact risk, rather than an autism diagnosis. A genetic study will then use the UK Biobank to examine inherited risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease and autistic traits.
Finally, we will study the communication between autistic and non-autistic people and medical professionals in a consultation setting to better understand how communication may impact poorer healthcare experiences and outcomes.
Community engagement
The autistic community will be consulted on the design of the study into communication in a consultation setting to help inform how to build, recruit for, and run it.
Potential impact
This research could identify autistic people as a group at higher risk of major ischaemic events, such as heart attacks and strokes, filling an important gap in our understanding. The findings could help guide preventative interventions to better support the needs of autistic people. The communication study may also offer ideas for how consultations between autistic patients and medical professionals could be improved.
Results
We anticipate sharing the results in 2026. When ready, the key findings will be shared on this page.
Funding
Staff:
- Omar Al-Rubaie
- Professor Sir Simon Baron-Cohen
- Professor Carrie Allison
- Dr Elizabeth Weir
- Dr Alex Tsompanidis